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Sports and Fight News Miguel Cotto VS Shane Mosley - An In-Depth Analysis
Sports and Fight News Miguel Cotto VS Shane Mosley - An In-Depth Analysis | Miguel Cotto VS Shane Mosley - An In-Depth Analysis | | Print | |
| Written by Rado | |
| Thursday, 08 November 2007 | |
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A close analysis of the boxing fireworks on display this Saturday by Miguel Cotto and Sugar Shane Mosley. For those of you who are going to be following one of the year's best boxing match-ups, here's the breakdown!
I'll be going over some point-by-point comparisons as well as some strategies each fighter must utilize to win. It's a tough fight and after the classic countdown, I find myself not wanting to bet on either fighter. I like them but one has got to go! HBO Picks The Younger Fighter - It has always been known that in a close fight, HBO is always more likely to pick the younger fighter. You can it benefit-of-the-doubt. I call it investment security. +1 Cotto Strength - Mosley might be the more powerful fighter but let it be known that Cotto is far stronger and can hurt opponents even when they block. Strength is related to pushing punches which might not sting but they do keep pushing and Cotto's strength will be there all 12 rounds. +1 Cotto Handspeed - Mosleys handspeed is blazing! Cotto's defense holds up unless his opponents let their hands go. Once an opponent is actually punching, Cotto WILL be hit. Hit him enough times and he WILL be hurt. Hurting him however won't guarantee a win. Torres got some right hands through, Judah got some uppercuts through. Cotto has a vulnerable chin and other opponents couldn't beat him because they couldn't hit him. Mosley's fast hands and fast combinations will definitely find Cotto giving Mosley a huge advantage over Cotto's previous opponents. +2 Mosley Chin - Mosley's chin is rock solid. Cotto's chin has made him vulnerable in the past. I do think that Cotto's chin is more solid at 147 since he doesn't have to lose as much weight and his brain will have more fluid making it less susceptible to head punches. Mosley is a much more consistent boxer AND puncher which makes Cotto's chin a huge vulnerability in this fight. I do however feel that Cotto will fight very tentatively against Mosley and not lunge in TOO much but you can definitely count on Mosley to finish once he's got an opponent hurt. +1 Mosley Footwork - Cotto is calm and efficient. Mosley is fast and swift. Mosley is more likely to be the lunger with Cotto calmly walking around in this match. At this point in Mosley's life, I'd like for him to be the walker, not jumper. A Mosley that is accustomed to jumping around too much is only going to get tired. +1 Cotto Bodypunching - Cotto wins this match outright. Mosley hits hard and has knocked out opponents before with bodyshots but Cotto makes bodyshots his gameplan. With Cotto, his offense IS his defense and he makes his opponents afraid to counter by throwing to their body all night long. It's easy to parry and head-punch and counter but it's very hard to parry a body shot and counter. You can either throw your punch anyway and trade a headshot by giving Cotto a bodyshot or you can just let him push you back all night long. It's even more demoralizing when fighters DO hit Cotto but his face shows no expression. +1 Cotto Size - Both fighters might hit just as hard but Cotto is quite clearly the bigger fighter in my opinion. What this means is that Mosley will not be able to do as much damage to Cotto as vice versa and as the rounds go by Mosley's punches would be less and less effective. It's also important to note that since Mosley has been fighting going backwards lately. He has been relying more on his counter-punching abilities instead of overwhelming his opponents physically. +1 Cotto Punch Effectiveness - Mosley is the faster fighter and more explosive fighter but Cotto is bigger. Mosley's punches would sting more but Cotto's punches would push through and wear down any fighter. The most important thing to notice is that Mosley's punches would do less damage as the fight wore on. You can count on his speed to diminish as Cotto's naturally heavier hands wear on. I have Mosley's hands being more effective at the beginning with Cotto's punches staying deadly throughout. Don't be fooled by Mosley's knockout of Fernando Vargas. Vargas was washed up and looked REALLY slow in that fight! - EVEN Experience - Shane Mosley has fought far better opposition and has wins over boxing's biggest stars of the past 10 years. Cotto has fought game opposition but all of them have been flawed simply because they were never truly undisputed champs. Zab Judah may have had the talent of one but he has shown time and time again to disappoint. His biggest win was over the pillow-punching Cory Spinks which isn't a risk by any means. Simply put, Mosley has taken many fights he didn't need and happily rematched and shown improvement. +1 Mosley Style - Cotto is far more adaptable than Mosley. Mosley fights one way and just tries harder when it doesn't work. That's what happens when you've had almost the same trainer forever and you've won because of your natural abilities instead of actual skill. Against Forrest and Wright, Mosley lost purely because of style not physical ability. Mosley might have the power to beat Cotto but he certainly won't be as effective stylistically. Cotto can fight going forwards, backwards, and sideways. He knows how to stay calm and keep throwing that left hook NO MATTER WHAT. It's also critical to know that a pressure style is one of the best ways to wear down an old fighter! +2 Cotto Hunger and Heart - I like to bunch these two because I think they go together. i think it would be far easier for Mosley to just give up the fight and argue that he thought he won. It's also more important to note that even if Cotto gets hurt, it's easier for him to change his style and comeback while I doubt the same will happen for Mosley. +1 Cotto Age - Forget what you've heard about Mosley being a young 35 and all that. The older fighter is always vulnerable. Age makes you extremely vulnerable to pressure. The most important thing to notice is that other than an worn-out Vargas Mosley has gone the distance three times against far lesser fighters. Fighters he would normally beat in his prime were now able to go the distance with him. Age will force Mosley to be careful and pacing this entire fight. It's a big drawback against a fighter where you need fire to fight fire. Mosley more than Cotto but eight years is such a huge difference. The good thing is that Mosley is older but longer and faster so I won't give Cotto too much of an advantage. +1 Cotto Arm Reach - Mosley does have longer arms but he stands very square and loves to stand a little close to his opponents in hopes of countering. Long arms are good if you jab a lot and like to play keepaway. Sometimes I think Mosley lunges forward a lot because his arms are too long. - EVEN Body Movement - Mosley has excellent body movements. He moves his head in small efficient movements to keep his opponents guessing. He also counters very well. Mosley doesn't just duck out of fear when his opponent starts punching, he lean out of the way and quickly come back with a hard combo. Against someone like Cotto who throws just like in a textbook, body movement would be extremely effective. +2 Mosley Boxing Skill - Cotto could very well be just as talented as Mosley but Mosley's physical gifts allow him to do more. Mosley has all sorts of tricks, most of them are for counter-punching purposes. Watch some Mosley videos, you'll see him pulling his head back and doing a lot of bait maneuvers with his head and then countering his opponent. Mosley has great ring generalship and knows how to mix up his punches. He'll throw triple left hooks when opponents don't throw back. Cotto's skill is different. Cotto is more about adaptive skill. Cotto throws the same punches he always does. Jab, jab, jab. Left hook downstairs, left hook upstairs and right hand finish. Cotto will turn southpaw at times to create an awkward space from his opponent. Offensively, Mosley does far more. Defensively, Cotto does better. Although many people feel that this fight is about Cotto's chin and a battle for forward movement, I think it's different. This fight will have Cotto coming forward non-stop with Mosley fighting on the retreat. If Mosley can stay calm and fire accurate clean counter-punches, he could very well win the fight. Mosley will not be backing up Cotto but he certainly has the skill to punch and step away as well as counter with hard punches. Hopefully, his pride will allow him to stay calm and win a fight moving backwards. The only negative is that it's very hard to win a fight moving backwards unless you're name is Floyd Mayweather and you've been doing it all your life. It's also very hard to impress the judges when you're the older guy and don't throw as many punches. +1 Mosley MY OWN PREDICTIONS AND THOUGHTS: This is a tough fight. Mosley certainly has the ability to pull off the upset and it's NOT luck. Mosley is longer, leaner, faster, more skillful, and can fight for a whole 12 rounds. He will most certainly be able to hit Cotto and hit him with hard shots. However I think Cotto is younger, and stronger, and naturally bigger. Cotto can handle the punches easier and might just figure out Mosley's attack patterns and block them all. Cotto also has the right style to deal with Mosley's speed and age so I could make a strong point for either one. If the fight gets wild, I have Mosley jumping on Cotto and knocking him out. If the fight is a calm and cautious pace, I have Cotto steadily pushing forward with Mosley on the defense. At this point, it's very hard to see Mosley win because he doesn't like to go backward. Mosley needs space to move around and race his punches to the other guy. While I do see Mosley hitting with effective punches, I see Cotto punching more and landing many blocked shots which still look good on the judges scorecard. If it goes to a close decision, you can almost count on Cotto to win it. Mosley has beaten many other opponents with his speed alone but I see Cotto learning Mosley's punching pattern and coming in with high gloves and forcing Mosley to trade. The only real way Mosley could win is by effectively countering going backwards all night long. He's got the physical tools but I really don't think that's his style and it probably won't be with the same old trainer in his corner. Here come's the IF's: IF Cotto can block Mosley's jab, COTTO will win the fight. IF Cotto can hurt Mosley, COTTO will win the fight. IF Mosley cannot stop Cotto's left hooks, Mosley will LOSE the fight. IF Mosley can fight going backwards, MOSLEY will win the fight. IF Mosley can back up Cotto, MOSLEY will win the fight. WHOEVER lands the jab more will win the fight. I feel Cotto has the better chance to win over the distance but Mosley also has the abilities to make it more than just a wild upset. Both guys have class so I'll be rooting for both men. It could also very be a setup for Mosley VS Mayweather, a VERY intriguing fight! I saw the fight is even for the first couple rounds before one of them pulls away. Cotto tends to be much more passive against speedy opponents. Mosley on the other hand loves to establish himself early. I say Cotto by 4 point decision or Mosley by shocking 5th round knockout but I'd say the decision is much more likely. Mosley couldn't knockout Collazo, Cruz, and Estrada so I doubt he'll do the same against Cotto. This fight is so exciting because it could be Cotto's first loss but also could be either man's first knockout! After all, they both has monstrous power and skillful boxing ability. It's definitely a fight you don't want to miss.
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