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Fight Picks Rado Picks Calzaghe Over Hopkins
Fight Picks Rado Picks Calzaghe Over Hopkins | Rado Picks Calzaghe Over Hopkins | | Print | |
| Written by Rado | |
| Monday, 14 April 2008 | |
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This fight has all the makings of an interesting fight. I'm picking Calzaghe for his age, busy hands, and awkward boxing style. Hopkins has fought to a decision nearly every fight in the past few years. He just doesn't have enough power, enough energy, and enough speed to intimidate. A great win against the lethargic Tarver doesn't prove that he can handle the top caliber skills of Joe Calzaghe.
This fight has certainly led me to make interesting comparisons of these boxers to other boxers. On one hand, we have Bernard Hopkins. Despite two losses to the recently exposed Jermain Taylor and two wins over undersized and worn-out champions in Antonio Tarver and Winky Wright, Hopkins still remains as a big draw in boxing. I like to call Hopkins the "middleweight De La Hoya". Like De La Hoya, Hopkins is old and has collected controversial losses, but is certainly still a big name in boxing. Joe Calzaghe on the other hand is what I like to call the "White Hopkins". It's comical but true in my opinion. He loves to use his footwork and go in and out of punching range. While he certainly has power and boxing skills, he is above all, an annoying fighter. To be fair, Calzaghe hasn't always fought that way. It was only most recently, most notably against Jeff Lazy and Mikkel Kessler, that Calzaghe began to fight like Hopkins by going in and out of range cleverly using head movement while throwing punches from entirely different angles. Moving on to all the intangibles and important pre-fight measurements relevant to the outcome of the fight: Experience - Both fighters have fought many difficult fights. Hopkins fought the bigger names but many of them were smaller fighters moving up in weight. It's also important to note that both Hopkins had many big wins against fighters that were on their way out of the game. Notable examples include Felix Trinidad, Howard Eastman, Antonio Tarver, Antwun Echols, and Morrade Hakkar. It's also important to note that Calzaghe beat the bigger fighters his entire career. +1 Calzaghe Power - Hopkins has not depended on his power in many of his recent fights. He hits hard enough to gain respect and nothing more. Although his power isn't lacking, it certainly isn't consistent. +1 Calzaghe Aggression - Calzaghe is clearly the more aggressive fighter who gets his opponents caught up in his high workrate and takes them out of their zone of comfort. Hopkins, at the other end of the spectrum, likes to stall the fight and make clever moves to stall the fight by keeping his opponents thinking instead of guessing. While Hopkins loves to backpedal, he isn't Floyd Mayweather or Muhammad Ali, fighters that can win moving backwards the entire fight. If the fight is going to a decision, it's almost always best to bet on the fighter that went forward the most. *This rule has worked in the past against Hopkins like the Jermain Taylor fights.* +2 Calzaghe Size - I have a feeling that Hopkins is truly bigger than he seems. His year-round workout scheduling is something I've mentioned before as the reason why he has easily made the 160-pound weight limit while many others have been forced to move up in weight. It is quote conceivable that Hopkins could be bigger than Joe Calzaghe all along. You could make a case for Calzaghe as the bigger fighter since he's been at super middleweight (168lb) his entire career but more importantly, he's fought the bigger fighters his entire career. Hopkins has always been a big 160-er with a tall 6'1" frame so I'm inclined to feel that their size is closer than we think. Friday's weigh-in showed that Hopkins is a bit bigger. +1 Hopkins HBO Bets Against the Retiring Fighter - Don't believe this? Watch the Morales VS Diaz fight, or the Hopkins VS Taylor. I could name many more but for whatever reason, this theory keeps holding up. +1 Calzaghe Speed - This fight will be highly dependent on speed. We're discussing two fighters who love to fight one punch at a time. Calzaghe loves to throw combos but he's also good at picking shots and making his opponent drop their guard. +1 Calzaghe Boxing Style - Hopkins loves to fight one punch at a time. He's notorious for lunging forward with a big right hand before tying up his opponent. Hopkins plays very well against his opponent's styles. He was the defender against Taylor, and the aggressor against Wright and Tarver. Calzaghe's inside fighting and busy hands will definitely help him against Hopkins. Calzaghe's awkward and very difficult style will definitely aid him against a guy who's fought every opponent out there. - EVEN Punching Style - Hopkins is very unique in that he uses very few punches. About a third of his punches are feints, another third are to score points, and the last third are to hurt his opponent. Hopkins never really throws combos, he likes to get the first punch in and the last punch out. He literally fights his fight one punch at a time. Calzaghe loves to throw multiple punches. He knows the first couple won't hit but the last few will definitely make their way through. Calzaghe is interesting in that he, like Hopkins, also mixes up little punches with big punches. Calzaghe loves to punch with a standing fist which makes his punching a bit faster since he doesn't look time turning the fist over. Because of Hopkin's height and 2 inch reach advantage, I'll have to assume that Hopkin's style is more effective but Calzaghe's style would definitely score more. +1 Calzaghe Defensive Style - Both have good defense but for different reasons. Hopkins is very good at controlling his angles and open targets in a manner that allows him to know where his opponent will punch next. He moves his head a lot when he punches which makes it very hard to hit him clean. I will have to say that Hopkins is better at counter-punching while Calzaghe is just good at moving around. Calzaghe is hard to reach because of his awkward style of movement. Watch Calzaghe and you'll see him leaning and punching at odd angles. The fact that he's a southpaw allows him to step and turn his body into different ways where he can get angles that no right-hander could get. Calzaghe does get caught a little bit more. +1 Hopkins Heart - I have never questioned the heart of either fighter but I feel that Hopkins is the loser in this factor. Lately Hopkins has slacked off during certain fights because he felt that he had already won the fight. In what I see as a close fight, it would be risky for him to give up points just because he thinks he's ahead. Calzaghe on the other hand, never take a round off and keeps coming forward win or lose. I have Calzaghe winning the close rounds. +1 Calzaghe Footwork - This one's tough. Hopkins has good evasive footwork. Calzaghe has good offensive footwork. - EVEN The fight is in Hopkins hometown - It's sad but this still makes a difference. The timezone is different, the arena is different. Of course there's an effect. +2 Hopkins Calzaghe's Southpaw Stance - Unfortunately, Calzaghe's left-handedness will not serve to be a huge advantage in this fight. The reason for this is because Hopkins moves well in all angles and throws his right hand a lot. Hopkins is well known for throwing the lead right with excellent timing. Hopkin's success with previous left-handed opponents like Winky Wright should prove his ability to fight a left-hander. EVEN Hopkin's Age - DUH! Hopkins is 44. He is today's Archie Moore, a boxer from the 1950's that fought well into his mid 40's. Hopkins seemed to be busy as hell during the Tarver fight but if you look at the punch count, he only threw 400 punches. This is what Calzaghe throws in 3 rounds? Against Wright, Hopkins threw 640. +1 Calzaghe Height & Reach - Hopkins is taller and longer, but not lankier. +1 Hopkins Final thoughts and predictions: I see a fight with Hopkins content with letting Calzaghe chase him around the ring. Hopkins may come forward the first two rounds to confuse Calzaghe but ultimately, he'll settle down and start moving backwards. I'll pick Calzaghe by 2 points in a close fight where many close rounds will be given to Hopkins as home court advantage.
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