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Fight Picks Why I'm Picking Henderson Over Silva at UFC 82
Fight Picks Why I'm Picking Henderson Over Silva at UFC 82 | Why I'm Picking Henderson Over Silva at UFC 82 | | Print | |
| Written by Rado | |
| Saturday, 01 March 2008 | |
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I don't usually bet against the betting odds but I've got a good reason to this time. Henderson is the better fighter in my eyes and the only reason why more people aren't betting on him is because he hasn't fought in the UFC that much recently. Sure Silva's got great knockouts and all but against whom? Silva's wins over Jeremy Horn, Rich Franklin, Carlos Newton, and Nathan Marquardt don't compare to Henderson's wins over Antonio Nogueira, Renato Sobral, and Wanderlei Silva.
Strenths & Weaknesses HENDERSON Henderson's strengths lie in his olympic-level wrestling. He also has very good grappling skills, and carries dynamite in his wild swinging fists. He has an excellent work ethic. This guy not only has great balance but he knows how to take people down very well and use their weight against them. He's very strong and has great stamina. Weaknesses Dan Henderson can get carried in the excitement of a fight and throw his gameplan out the window. From time to time, this has meant trading punches with people far bigger than him or even just wasting all his energy. Against someone like Silva, this is a giant setback since Silva can finish you in one second if you're not paying attention. Hidden Strengths While he certainly isn't smooth with his punches, he does throw them in a manner that makes them strangely effective against even the most skilled strikers. This should serve him well over Anderson Silva. SILVA Strengths Very fast, very sharp striking. Stinging kicks and snapping punches. Sharp elbows and knees that reach very far! He's also very strong and wiry so he's able to push his way out of submission attempts. He has a great stance and has very good balance which allows him to out maneuver his opponents most of the time. Silva is a very dominant fighter and even when he doesn't knock out his opponents, he is still able to intimidate them in a way that allows him to rack up easy decision wins. A closer look at his record shows that he's had no split decision wins! This is KEY! Weaknesses I don't care what the stats say on paper. Silva's ground game is pathetic. He only gets away with it because he's too powerful, too lanky, and too awkward for his opponents. Hidden Strengths I think this guy is much bigger than he looks. Something tells me that his long legs are camouflaging his otherwise stocky frame. He is very muscular and again, quite possibly far bigger than he looks. This is all natural muscle, so that's a VERY good body type to have. In my opinion, he is far bigger than many of the opponents he has beaten. This theory would certainly explain the reason why many fighters have a hard time taking him down - it is because he is too big and too strong for them, not too skillful. Silva avoids takedowns like he's jumping out of a beartrap. It isn't skillful but it is effective. ================================================================ Point By Point Analysis: Size - Silva is taller but Henderson is more solid. Silva is leaner muscle. Henderson sports a little flab making him the smaller fighter in my opinion. +1 Silva Speed - Silva is well coordinated and quite agile for someone of his frame. Even when Silva looks like he's losing his balance he's still got it under him. Henderson is crafty. He uses intelligent speed and efficient subtle movements to keep opponents guessing. - Even Stand-up - This is Silva's game right here. I won't push to make a stand for Henderson since I've yet to see decent kicks come out from him. Silva also has the better technique behind his punches. In terms of striking defense, I'm still picking Silva since he's able to time his opponents and back step out of the way while Henderson is more accustomed to just blocking his opponent's strikes. +1 Silva Fight Intelligence - Henderson is crafty but gets drawn out into a brawl too easily. Silva just uses his range to run away and strike at his opponents from afar. Silva is as calm and level-headed as any fighter can get. Henderson has lost several fights before at the cost of getting "stupid". - +1 Silva Endurance - I'm picking Henderson on this one for the sole fact that he's been able to knockout people in the later rounds while Silva has only been able to pull out decisions if he doesn't knockout his opponents in the second round. In a long championship match like this one, I'd have to pick against Silva for this one. +1 Henderson Takedown - Anderson Silva is not takedown-proof - I'll save that term for BJ Penn or maybe even Chuck Liddell at times. Henderson will make better use of the takedown and he WILL get a takedown. Mark my words. +1 Henderson Silva's Betting Odds - I love it when this happens. People bet on the more exciting fighter and create odds that aren't realistic of the chance outcomes. Henderson's been the betting underdog against Wanderlei, Nogueira, and Vitor. He beat all of them. Against Rampage, he dominated the first two rounds before losing the last three for getting tired and being just too small. If anything, the betting odds are just going to motivate Henderson even more. - NO EFFECT Henderson's Age - Henderson is the next Couture in my eyes. This guy's been in brawls and still hasn't gotten knocked out. I imagine his chin and his body are still very young but experienced. - NO EFFECT Silva's Striking VS Henderson's Chin - Henderson has never been knocked out so Silva is going to have to respect that and not over commit on his punches. Henderson has also been in with some of the best strikers in the world so he'll definitely be ready for Silva. Regardless, I'd rather have powerful strikes than a powerful chin. +1 Silva Henderson's Experience - Henderson has fought the better fighters and the more experienced fighters. Enough said. +1 Henderson Silva's win streak - I'm not all that impressed with his wins. At best, they show that he has no easy weaknesses to take advantage of. - NO EFFECT Silva's last fight with Franklin - Silva beat Franklin again impressively but I didn't really see Franklin doing anything. Franklin was a live punching bag and even when he kicked, he did it without conviction and without any real intent. Many of Silva's other opponents did the same, they were just too scared to fight back. Thankfully, Henderson won't be the same. +1 Henderson Henderson's last fight with Rampage - I just can't imagine Silva doing to Rampage what Henderson did for the first two rounds when they met. Henderson tripped him and man-handled him like a hunter boloing the legs of a mastodon. +1 Henderson Henderson's wrestling - Henderson has real wrestling skills. it's not about how well he takes people down. It's what he does in between his takedown attempts and in between his submission attempts. Dare I say it, he's Michael Jackson on the ground! Silva on the ground just isn't the same. He's a fish out of water, he's uncoordinated, uncomfortable, and it's plain obvious that he just wants to get back on his feet. +1 Henderson Gameplans - Henderson should just bull his way right in with some good punches and close the distance for a takedown. Once on the ground, Henderson should keep his body real tight and not get too punch-happy in favor of establishing a better mount instead. Silva needs to use his knees and elbows in close and to keep turning away from Henderson who fights square and create angles to throw some easy kicks while avoiding takedowns at the same time. Keep hitting the rock and it'll crack eventually. What will Probably Happen - This is a championship fight. Expect a slow 1st round from Silva and a fast pace from Henderson. Henderson should win round one easily. If he doesn't, OH CRAP, I think he'll lose the fight. Silva is going to dance around the ring and take his time. I don't see him taking the fight to Henderson UNLESS Henderson doesn't move his head well. The middle and late rounds will either be Henderson taking down Silva easily or Silva landing several strikes before being taken down.
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